What will be the magnitude of sea level rise in the Acadian Peninsula?

The most recent projections indicate that the sea level in the Acadian Peninsula will increase by about 70 cm between 2010 and 2100.

Very few infrastructures are currently located in areas that will be permanently submerged in 2100 according to these scenarios. It is mainly areas currently occupied by marshes, spits and beaches that will be submerged.

The problem, however, is that because of the rise in the average sea level, several locations where infrastructures are currently located will be temporarily flooded during storm surges.

What does that mean for us?
If we do not adapt the way we build and do not move back some of the infrastructures in areas at risk:
  • Increasing numbers of roads, buildings, private and public property will be damaged.
  • Essential services will be disrupted and compromised: electricity, drinking water, wastewater treatment.
  • Our quality of life will also be affected: stress, injuries and other health problems. Some fatalities could even occur.

Flooding projections

Normalcy with regards to flooding will change. Here are examples of probable flood scenarios. These maps illustrate the difference between a flood caused by a major storm today and the same major storm occurring in 2050. The risk of flooding is high, because there is a 45% chance that a major storm will occur at least once in the next 30 years.

img previsions bas caraquet

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How bad could the worst flood scenarios be?

Very large storm surges, combined with a very high tide and sea level rise, could provoque extreme scenarios, such as the following. 

img previsions tracadie

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Erosion projections

Here are examples of where the coastline could be located in the future, based on historial erosion rates. The maps illustrate the potential future position of the shoreline in 2025, 2055, 2085 and 2100 or in 2030, 2050 and 2100.

img previsions caraquet
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Erosion and flooding
In the example above, see the evolution of coastal erosion in the Pigeon Hill area from 1944 to 2012. Move the arrows!

A rigorous process

Scenarios and risks

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Gain better knowledge of damage risks and risks to human health posed by erosion and flooding.

Maps and zoning

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Delineate areas at risk based on recommendations.

Priorities and potential strategies

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Identify and prioritise elements at stake within risk areas.

Evaluation and strategy selection

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Conduct more extensive studies for some of the adaptation measures under consideration.

Implement plans

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Define the details on when and how the actions will be taken and implemented.

Project progression

Follow the progress of the project in your community using the interactive map.

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Possible solutions

Adapting to climate change requires the implementation of several complementary measures on the same territory to ensure the safety of both the public and infrastructures. Here are some possible solutions.